Overview
- Voters in Hillsborough County’s Senate District 14 choose a successor Tuesday after Jay Collins became lieutenant governor.
- Republicans hold an early-vote lead of about 3,035 ballots as of Monday, while Democrats show a higher turnout rate at roughly 23% to 21%.
- No-party registrants make up about 27% of the electorate but account for under 11% of early ballots, making their Election Day choices pivotal.
- GOP candidate Josie Tomkow is favored given the district’s 39% Republican registration, Trump’s 2024 margin of about seven points, and her far larger reported funds and endorsements.
- Analysts expect Democrats to outperform past results rather than flip the seat, with both campaigns pressing get-out-the-vote as mail ballots are accepted until 7 p.m. Tuesday.