Florida Senate Race Becomes Toss‑Up as St. Pete Poll Shows Moody and Nixon Neck‑and‑Neck

Overview

• The St. Pete Polls survey conducted Sept. 15–17 for Florida Politics found Sen. Ashley Moody at roughly 45.2% and Angie Nixon at 44.8% in a 913‑likely‑voter sample with a margin of error of ±3.2 percentage points.
• The poll used automated phone calls and peer‑to‑peer text messages and was weighted to Florida’s active voter rolls to reflect a Republican registration edge of about 42% to 31% Democrat.
• Demographic splits drive the shift: Nixon leads independents, voters under 50 and Black voters while Moody keeps strong support from older voters and white Republicans.
• Moody retains a large documented fundraising advantage, having raised $11.3 million through July with $8.4 million on hand after the primary, while Nixon has reported increased fundraising since her upset primary win but started from under $1 million.
• The close result departs from earlier polls that showed Moody ahead by several points and raises the prospect that the Hope Florida coverage and Moody’s refusal of at least one debate have helped Nixon narrow the gap, a development that could change how both parties allocate money and field operations in Florida.