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Florida Poll Finds Toss-Ups Statewide as Independents Shift Toward Democrats

Trump’s weak standing with unaffiliated voters points to a more competitive map.

Overview

  • A new EDGE/MDW survey released Monday shows Democrats leading Florida’s generic ballot 46% to 45% among likely voters.
  • President Donald Trump registers -6 statewide job approval and -39 with no‑party‑affiliated voters, who favor Democrats 52% to 23%.
  • Top contests are essentially tied, with the governor test at 41% for Byron Donalds and 41% for David Jolly and the Senate test at 43% for Ashley Moody and 42% for Alex Vindman.
  • Democrat José Javier Rodríguez holds a 42.8% to 39.6% edge over Attorney General James Uthmeier, paired with a stronger favorability rating.
  • Affordability ranks as the top concern and a property‑tax elimination idea falls from 55% support to 39% once tradeoffs are explained, well short of Florida’s 60% ballot threshold.