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Flavio Bolsonaro’s Surge Leaves Lula in Statistical Tie in New Datafolha Poll

The senator pitches a softer image to extend his appeal beyond the Bolsonaro base.

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Jair Bolsonaro was associated with incendiary comments slamming gays, demeaning women and praising Brazil's dictatorship years
The bespectacled 44-year-old senator, who is pitching himself as a more moderate member of the far-right dynasty, surprised many with a surge in opinion polls ahead of October elections
Senator Flavio Bolsonaro during the Senate leadership election vote at the National Congress in Brasilia, Brazil, on Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2023. Senator Rodrigo Pacheco was elected President of Brazil's Senate for a second term in a 49-32 vote held this Wednesday at the Senate's floor. Photographer: Andressa Anholete/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Overview

  • New Datafolha survey shows Lula at 38% and Flavio at 32% in a first round, with a runoff reading of 46% to 43% that falls within a statistical tie.
  • The swing represents a sharp change from December, when Lula led by 15 points, as Datafolha reports Flavio’s support has doubled since then.
  • Jair Bolsonaro remains barred from office and jailed on coup-linked charges, having named Flavio as his political heir from prison.
  • Flavio is working to broaden his appeal with outreach to women, gender-inclusive posts, and a plan to choose a female running mate from Brazil’s northeast.
  • He continues to back conservative causes and tough security proposals, drawing attention for suggesting on X that the United States bomb boats in Rio, after earlier saying he might leave the race for a “price.”