Flash-Flood Threat Shifts to the Central Gulf Coast After Texas Downpours

Overview

• The Weather Prediction Center, which issued a new alert Monday afternoon, expects hourly rain of 2 to 3 inches with local 3 to 5 inch totals from southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi and far southwest Alabama.
• Earlier Monday, a slow-moving cluster of storms in central and east Texas produced 2 inch per hour rates and isolated flash flooding near College Station before activity drifted toward the Gulf.
• Forecasters point to very moist air with precipitable water near 1.6 to 2.0 inches, storm motions under 10 knots, and soils soaked by 300 to 600 percent of typical weekly rain as the key drivers of flooding.
• Across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi, the Storm Prediction Center notes a few stronger cells could produce gusty outflow winds, but the overall severe threat remains limited.
• Along Florida’s Atlantic coast and the coastal Carolinas, isolated damaging winds and marginal hail are possible in afternoon storms, and officials say a severe-weather watch is unlikely.