Flash Flood Threat and Isolated Severe Storms Target Midwest, Tennessee and Southeast

Overview

• National Weather Service forecast products on Saturday warned of slow, training thunderstorms capable of rainfall rates up to 2–3+ inches per hour and localized totals of 2 to 5+ inches across parts of the Midwest, Middle Tennessee, northern Florida, southern Georgia and mountainous New Mexico.
• WPC issued multiple mesoscale precipitation discussions that singled out the Chicago and Nashville metropolitan areas for an elevated short‑term urban flash‑flood risk where previous wet soils and high streamflows lower the threshold for rapid runoff.
• SPC flagged a 40% probability of issuing a severe thunderstorm watch for portions of southern Indiana, Ohio, central Kentucky and middle Tennessee because clusters and transient supercells could produce damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.
• New Mexico forecasters warned of heavy convective rain over mountains that could produce flash floods in urban areas, burn scars and slot canyons while the SPC judged severe gusts or marginal hail possible there but a watch unlikely.
• Because high‑resolution models disagree on exact storm tracks forecasters urge watching local NWS forecast offices and short‑range radar updates for evolving warnings and to protect homes, roads and low‑lying urban areas from rapid flooding.