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Five Years After Texas Blackout, Winter Test Shows Gains but Exposes Lasting Risks

Experts caution true resilience will only be clear in a storm that rivals 2021.

Overview

  • January’s 2026 freeze produced no statewide blackouts, though at least 13 deaths were reported and ERCOT at times overestimated demand.
  • Post-2021 measures include plant weatherization, inspections, backup fuel and penalties up to $1 million per day, alongside rapid growth in grid-scale batteries and more than 40,000 megawatts of added capacity, according to officials.
  • Natural gas production plunged to lows not seen since 2021, driving price spikes and renewed accusations of gouging, even as industry leaders pointed to improved communications and new critical-load designations.
  • A state audit found gas-sector weatherization rules lacked clear baselines and, in some cases, independent verification, signaling weak enforcement.
  • NERC’s latest outlook lists Texas at elevated risk in extreme weather and projects a return to high risk by decade’s end without further action, citing fast-rising demand and retiring plants.