Overview
- Fitch Ratings, which on Friday affirmed Mexico’s sovereign grade at BBB- with a stable outlook, said fiscal pressures are building.
- The agency reported general government debt at 54.6% of GDP in 2025 and expects it to exceed about 58% by 2027 as deficits remain large.
- Fitch expects recurrent state support for Pemex, citing uncertain production gains and recent fires and floods at the new Dos Bocas refinery.
- It projects 1.7% growth in 2026, notes inflation rose to 4.59% in March, and says Mexico’s central bank has begun easing policy.
- Fiscal consolidation looks harder due to a low tax base and rising social spending, with weak governance metrics and the T-MEC review adding trade and market uncertainty.