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First Watch Shares Slide After Big Q4 Beat as 2026 Outlook Turns Cautious

The company signaled a tougher dining category despite recent outperformance.

Overview

  • Shares fell about 13% on Tuesday after the company paired strong results with conservative 2026 guidance.
  • Fourth-quarter revenue rose 20% and earnings per share reached $0.24, significantly topping analyst expectations.
  • For 2026, management projected 12%–14% revenue growth, 1%–3% same-restaurant sales, and 59–63 new openings, implying roughly 9% unit growth.
  • For 2025, the chain increased its restaurant count by 11% and posted 3.6% same-restaurant sales growth, with positive traffic versus an industry decline of about 1.9%.
  • Leaders voiced caution on consumer trends, skipped a January price increase that leaves carried pricing near 4% in the first half and about 2% for the year, and outlined $150 million to $160 million in capital spending to support development.