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First High-Resolution Tsunami Swath From Space Challenges Forecast Models

SWOT’s pass over the July 2025 Kamchatka tsunami revealed a dispersed, braided wave field favoring dispersive modeling.

Overview

  • A magnitude 8.8 quake on the KurilKamchatka subduction zone on July 29–30, 2025 generated a Pacific-wide tsunami captured by NASA/CNES’s SWOT satellite.
  • SWOT mapped a 75–120 kilometer-wide swath of sea-surface height roughly 70 minutes after the quake, showing a complex wave pattern rather than a single intact crest.
  • The leading open-ocean wave exceeded about 45 centimeters in height, with smaller trailing waves indicating significant dispersion and scattering.
  • By combining the satellite swath with DART buoy records, researchers revised the earthquake rupture to extend about 400 kilometers, larger than many initial estimates.
  • The peer-reviewed analysis in The Seismic Record underscores the need to incorporate dispersive physics and to explore integrating satellite swaths into multi-platform warning systems.