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Fifteen Years After 3/11, Japan Sets Risk-Model Overhaul as IEA Weighs Oil Response

A government panel will start overhauling estimates for deaths tied to disasters, along with building damage, in fiscal 2026.

Overview

  • Official counts list 15,901 direct deaths, 2,519 missing and 3,810 disaster‑related deaths, with roughly 26,000 people still displaced as of February 1.
  • Japan has spent about ¥33 trillion on recovery through fiscal 2025 and plans roughly ¥1.9 trillion for 2026–31, with a large share targeting Fukushima cleanup and related projects as decommissioning progress remains limited.
  • The Cabinet Office reaffirmed that revising methods for estimating disaster‑related deaths and building damage will proceed first, with results intended to guide local preparedness for megaquakes such as the Nankai Trough and Japan Trench events.
  • Fifteenth‑anniversary commemorations continued nationwide, the imperial couple attended a Tokyo air‑raid memorial rite, and a survey found visits to 3/11 heritage facilities fell for a second straight year.
  • Regional instability intensified as Lebanon’s reported death toll climbed, Kuwait’s airport fuel tanks were struck by a drone, President Trump warned over potential mines in the Hormuz Strait, and the IEA convened an emergency meeting to debate coordinated oil‑reserve releases.