Overview
- Miran, speaking in Washington on Thursday, said he may now favor three quarter-point cuts in 2026 after projecting four last month.
- He still supports a reduction at the April 28–29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, citing signs the job market is cooling.
- He said the Iran conflict and higher energy prices raise the risk of faster inflation, yet he argued brief energy shocks should be looked through if they fade within 12 to 18 months.
- He pushed back on claims that White House tariffs are the main cause of rising core goods prices, pointing instead to broader changes in trade and supply chains since the pandemic.
- Investor contracts now suggest the policy rate could stay near 3.50% to 3.75% until about June 2027, signaling skepticism that substantial easing will arrive soon.