Overview
- In a Columbia University speech, Stephen Miran said that after excluding lagging shelter costs and mismeasured service items such as portfolio management fees, underlying inflation is running below 2.3%.
- Miran argued tariffs have only a small, one‑time effect on the price level—around 0.2 percentage point with an outer bound near 0.4—and said exporters absorb most costs, citing product‑level elasticity work by Anson Soderbery and transshipment bias documented by Jackson Mejia.
- He noted goods inflation began rising in mid‑2024 before the 2025 tariffs, said import‑intensive categories have not outpaced other core goods, and pointed to similar inflation trends across peer economies to challenge tariff‑driven explanations.
- He dissented from last week’s 25‑basis‑point rate cut in favor of a 50‑basis‑point move, warning that keeping policy too tight risks job losses even as he says prices are now stable at a higher level.
- He acknowledged uncertainty over the drivers of goods inflation and cited possibilities including data volatility, lingering post‑pandemic effects, or longer‑term trade restructuring, while New York Fed President John Williams separately characterized tariff effects as muted.