Overview
- In prepared remarks to NABE, Lisa Cook said displacement could precede new roles, meaning unemployment may rise without signaling extra slack and making rate cuts inflationary.
- She pointed to early signals including weaker demand for coders and higher joblessness among recent graduates even as overall unemployment sits near 4.3%.
- Cook said heavy spending on data centers and chips suggests a higher near‑term neutral rate that could later drift lower, and she urged education and workforce policies to cushion workers.
- Goldman Sachs estimated AI drove 5,000–10,000 monthly net job losses in the most exposed U.S. industries last year, as companies from Amazon, Dow and Pinterest to WiseTech and Telstra announced AI‑linked restructurings.
- Markets and analysts pushed back on Citrini Research’s hypothetical mass‑layoff scenario, with officials and firms labeling it speculative as tech shares rebounded and surveys showed rising anxiety among high earners and record‑low turnover in white‑collar fields.