Overview
- Policymakers are expected to deliver a second quarter-point reduction this year, taking the policy rate to a 3.75%–4.00% target range.
- Futures markets see strong odds of another cut in December, though Chair Jerome Powell is expected to avoid pre-committing during his press conference.
- A nearly monthlong government shutdown has stalled key federal reports, including the September jobs data, and could prevent publication of October inflation figures.
- Inflation rose about 3% year over year in September, above the 2% goal, even as hiring cooled and unemployment reached 4.3%, highlighting the policy tradeoff.
- Analysts are watching for any signal on pausing balance-sheet runoff and for potential dissents, with political pressure on Fed leadership noted but not central to deliberations.