Overview
- The Fed is widely expected today to trim the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4.00% target range, following September’s first cut of 2025.
- A 29-day government shutdown has halted most official releases, including the September jobs report, forcing policymakers to rely on partial and private indicators.
- September CPI, released despite the shutdown, rose 3.0% year over year with core at 3.0%, remaining above the Fed’s 2% goal.
- Traders price high odds of another cut in December, yet officials are divided, with potential dissents ranging from a larger half-point reduction to no cut.
- Observers also see a chance the Fed halts its $6.6 trillion balance-sheet runoff to ease market strains, as President Trump presses for deeper cuts and stocks climb ahead of the decision.