Overview
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller said his support for a March rate cut hinges on February labor data and revisions to January, calling the decision "close to a coin flip."
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said cuts should wait until inflation shows clear progress toward 2%, warning that front‑loading easing with core inflation near 3% is not prudent.
- Market pricing shows a high probability the Fed holds rates in March, with expectations shifting to potential cuts in June or July as officials await fresh jobs and inflation readings before the March 17–18 meeting.
- The January report showed a 130,000 payroll gain and 4.3% unemployment, which Waller welcomed but cautioned could be "more noise than signal" given 2025’s weak hiring and sector‑concentrated gains.
- Officials noted the Supreme Court’s move to strike down many tariffs adds near‑term price uncertainty, though Waller sees limited lasting impact and Goolsbee expects tariff effects to wane.