Fed Officials Split on Next Rate Moves as Miran Urges Continued Cuts

Overview

• Fed director Stephen Miran said it remains appropriate to keep cutting rates and reported no change to his inflation or labor-market projections following the weekend’s Middle East escalation.
• New York Fed President John Williams said risks to price stability and employment are now more balanced and judged policy well positioned to return inflation to target.
• Williams estimated recent tariffs added roughly 0.5–0.75 percentage points to inflation, projecting headline inflation near 2.5% in 2026 and easing to 2% in 2027 as tariff effects fade.
• Williams described an atypical labor market that weakened in 2025 but is showing early signs of stabilization, with few hires and few layoffs.
• Kansas City Fed’s Jeffrey Schmid warned there is no room for complacency with inflation closer to 3% than 2%, viewed the employment mandate as broadly balanced, and noted he is not a voter this year.