Overview
- Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, in a Thursday radio interview, said rates will likely stay on hold for quite some time and urged a neutral stance on whether the next move is a cut or a hike.
- Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee and St. Louis’s Alberto Musalem said Wednesday the war is delivering an inflationary shock, citing oil above $100 and March PCE inflation at 3.5% headline and 3.2% core.
- The New York Fed’s supply‑chain gauge jumped to its highest since July 2022, and average U.S. gasoline prices have topped $4.50 a gallon, signaling broader cost pressures reaching households and businesses.
- Traders have reset expectations, with markets now betting on no Fed rate cuts until 2027 or later and rising odds of an increase, a backdrop that could constrain incoming chair Kevin Warsh despite White House pressure for lower rates.
- The Fed’s late‑April meeting saw rare dissents over language pointing to cuts, and major central banks in the U.S., euro area, and U.K. also kept rates unchanged in April as inflation stayed above targets.