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Fed Minutes Signal Return of Rate‑Hike Risk as Yields Jump

Energy-driven inflation from the Iran war has pushed markets to price fewer Fed cuts with a higher chance of hikes later in the year.

Overview

  • Citing Wednesday's FOMC minutes, a majority of officials said 'some policy firming would likely become appropriate' if inflation remains above the Fed's 2 percent goal.
  • Market pricing shifted sharply in mid-May as Treasury yields climbed to fresh 52-week highs and 20- and 30-year yields reached levels not seen since 2007.
  • Bond-market moves lifted consumer borrowing costs and pushed the average 30-year mortgage rate to roughly 6.75 percent, squeezing housing affordability.
  • Major central-bank officials in Japan, the euro area, and the U.K. have publicly signalled readiness to tighten policy if energy-driven inflation persists, complicating global policy paths.
  • Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed chair with a divided committee, and markets will watch upcoming inflation prints, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and next central-bank meetings for direction.