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Fed Keeps Rate on Hold in Warsh’s First Meeting but Signals a Likely Hike Later This Year

The Fed’s updated projections raised the odds of a 25 basis-point increase and sent U.S. yields and the dollar higher, a shift that can tighten global financing and pressure vulnerable emerging markets.

Overview

  • The Federal Reserve voted unanimously on Wednesday to keep its policy rate at 3.50%–3.75% in the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh.
  • The Fed’s dot plot moved to show more officials expecting higher rates and increased the probability of at least a 25 basis-point hike before year-end.
  • Markets reacted quickly with U.S. stocks falling and Treasury yields and the dollar rising after the Fed decision and a 4.2% year-on-year U.S. inflation reading for May.
  • Argentina’s market measures weakened the same day as the country-risk index rose to about 435, the retail dollar reached ARS 1,460, and the central bank continued buying dollars but slowed to roughly US$34 million in the session.
  • The policy shift tightens global financial conditions by raising borrowing costs through higher U.S. yields and a stronger dollar and could force further emerging-market currency moves or additional central bank interventions, with next Fed signals and U.S. inflation data key to watch.