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Fed Holds Rates, Raises Inflation Outlook as Oil Shock Clouds Path to Cuts

A jump in oil prices from the Iran conflict led officials to raise their 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7%.

Overview

  • The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% and maintained projections for a single 25-basis-point cut in 2026.
  • Officials lifted their year-end PCE inflation projection to about 2.7% after Brent crude surged toward $109 per barrel on war-related supply risks.
  • The decision was 11–1, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a quarter-point cut.
  • Markets turned risk-off, with U.S. stocks falling, Treasury yields and the dollar rising, and Bitcoin dropping following the decision and Powell’s remarks.
  • President Trump continued to press for immediate rate cuts, while Chair Jerome Powell said he will serve as chair pro tem until a successor is confirmed and the ongoing investigation is resolved.