Overview
- Policymakers kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% for a second straight meeting in an 11–1 vote, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting for a quarter-point cut.
- The Fed’s projections raised 2026 PCE inflation to about 2.7% and maintained a single 25-basis-point cut penciled in for this year, with several officials indicating less easing than in December.
- Chair Jerome Powell said the Iran conflict’s effects on growth are uncertain and noted energy-driven inflation pressures, as recent data showed a softer labor backdrop and hotter wholesale prices.
- Brent crude surged above $107–$109 a barrel after attacks on regional energy facilities, contributing to a market shift that pushed expected Fed cuts toward late 2026 or into 2027.
- Stocks fell, Treasury yields and the dollar rose, bitcoin dropped, and other central banks including the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank also held rates with cautious guidance.