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Fed Holds Rates in 11–1 Vote, Projects One 2026 Cut as Energy Shock Clouds Outlook

Markets slid after policymakers raised their inflation forecast.

Overview

  • The FOMC kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% with an 11–1 vote, as Governor Stephen Miran dissented for a 25-basis-point cut.
  • New projections lifted this year’s PCE inflation outlook to 2.7% and continued to signal one quarter-point reduction before year-end.
  • Chair Jerome Powell said higher energy prices will push up inflation in the near term but the economic effects of the Iran conflict remain uncertain.
  • Bitcoin and major U.S. equity benchmarks fell following the decision and press conference, while the 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.21%.
  • Political pressure from President Trump for immediate rate cuts persisted as Powell’s term nears its May end and Kevin Warsh’s nomination remains unresolved; Powell said he would serve as chair pro tem if no successor is confirmed.