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Fed Holds Rates, Cites Middle East Energy Shock as Key Inflation Risk

Unsettled inflation risks keep guidance cautious, with just one 2026 cut in the projections.

Overview

  • Policymakers kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% in an 11–1 vote, with Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a quarter‑point cut.
  • Updated forecasts lift 2026 GDP growth to 2.4% and inflation to 2.7%, while the unemployment outlook remains at 4.4%.
  • The dot plot signals one rate reduction in 2026 and another in 2027; Powell said it is too early to size the energy shock and that a hike is not the base case.
  • Powell vowed to remain on the Fed board and serve as acting chair until a successor is confirmed and a Justice Department inquiry concludes, as Kevin Warsh’s nomination awaits Senate approval.
  • U.S. stocks fell after the briefing, and the ECB also held steady while warning an adverse energy scenario could drive eurozone inflation to 4.8% in 2027.