Overview
- The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% and lifted its 2026 PCE inflation projection to about 2.7%, up from 2.4%.
- Officials’ projections still pencil in one 25‑basis‑point rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027, reflecting caution about persistent price pressures.
- The decision was 11–1, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a quarter‑point cut as President Trump’s public calls for immediate easing went unheeded.
- Chair Jerome Powell said the economic effects of the Iran war are uncertain and noted higher energy costs will likely lift inflation in the near term.
- Markets repriced for fewer cuts this year as stocks fell, bitcoin slid, Treasury yields rose, the dollar firmed, and oil surged toward $110 a barrel; soft February payrolls and a 4.4% unemployment rate added to the policy dilemma.