Fed Cuts Rate to 3.75%–4.00% as Powell Says a December Move Is Not Assured

Overview

• The Federal Reserve lowered its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, the second cut of 2025, with a 10–2 vote as Stephen Miran sought a larger move and Jeffrey Schmid favored holding.
• The policy statement cited slower job gains and inflation that has risen since early 2025, with officials emphasizing data dependence complicated by a U.S. government shutdown.
• Powell said a further reduction in December is "far from guaranteed," driving the dollar higher, lifting U.S. Treasury yields, and leaving Wall Street mixed by the close.
• Brazil’s Ibovespa set a record close near 148,633 after an intraday high above 149,000, the real hovered around R$5.35 per dollar, and long‑dated DI futures climbed in step with U.S. yields.
• With Brazil’s Selic at 15%, the wider yield gap supports carry‑trade inflows, as investors track local data and the next BCB decision alongside the December FOMC and a Trump–Xi tariff reduction announcement that also buoyed sentiment.