Fed-Cut Odds Jump After Williams’s Signal, Lifting Stocks as Tech Stays Unsettled

Overview

• Wall Street rebounded Friday, with the Dow up 1.08%, the S&P 500 up 0.98% and the Nasdaq up 0.88%, after a sharp tech-led reversal the previous session.
• CME FedWatch showed roughly 68%–73% probability of a December rate cut following Williams’s comments, even as other officials such as Susan Collins and Lorie Logan urged caution.
• The delayed U.S. payroll report showed 119,000 jobs added in September and unemployment up to 4.4%, delivering the final labor snapshot before the Fed’s December decision.
• Treasury yields and the dollar softened around the data, while European stocks swung lower on Friday after Thursday’s Nvidia-driven bounce as valuation worries in AI persisted.
• Bitcoin traded near $89,000—about 30% below its record—with analysts highlighting a lack of 2022-style solvency shocks and noting continued institutional participation.