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Fed Beige Book Signals Modest Growth as Tariffs Keep Price Pressures Elevated

Markets expect no rate move in March given ongoing tariff-driven costs weighing on prices and demand.

The Federal Reserve Board building in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 14, 2025. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo
The Federal Reserve has warned that the cost of tariffs -- a signature policy of President Donald Trump -- are increasingly being passed on to consumers

Overview

  • U.S. activity edged higher in recent weeks and most Fed districts anticipate slight to moderate growth, the Beige Book reported.
  • Price increases persisted, with many contacts citing higher input costs from tariffs and noting greater customer price sensitivity and pullbacks by lower‑income shoppers.
  • Employment conditions remained broadly stable with limited evidence of widespread layoffs outside the technology sector.
  • The report’s information runs through Feb. 23 and does not reflect the fuller effects of the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling or the start of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran that lifted oil prices.
  • Policymakers are expected to hold rates in March and investors see the next cut not before July, while President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair.