Overview
- A New York Fed study using data through November 2025 estimates U.S. firms and consumers bore about 90% of the levies, with pass-through at 94% in January–August, 92% in September–October, and 86% in November as average tariffs rose from 2.6% to roughly 13%.
- The Congressional Budget Office’s latest outlook puts the domestically borne share at roughly 95% and warns of temporarily higher prices, reduced investment, lower GDP, and fewer jobs versus a no-tariff baseline.
- Federal customs receipts jumped, with $287 billion collected in calendar year 2025 and about $30 billion in January, contributing to a narrower monthly deficit.
- Import patterns shifted as China’s share of U.S. goods fell below 10% and Mexico and Vietnam gained market share, reflecting efforts to route around the steepest duties.
- Inflation headlines stayed relatively subdued with January CPI at 2.4%, spurring debate over timing and measurement, while a pending Supreme Court ruling and possible targeted exemptions keep the policy’s trajectory uncertain.