Overview
- The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year over year in February, with core inflation at 2.5% as monthly gains registered 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.
- The report predates U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iran’s actions that curbed Strait of Hormuz traffic, with Brent briefly near $120 before trading around $92, petroleum up about 18% since late February, and U.S. gasoline prices up roughly 20%.
- Market gauges point to the Federal Reserve holding rates at 3.5%–3.75% next week as expectations for rate cuts shift later into the summer.
- The Fed’s preferred PCE measure remained elevated at 2.9% in December, with economists expecting roughly 3.1% for January, while recent data showed a 92,000 job loss and unemployment at 4.4%.
- The International Energy Agency is considering a record strategic oil reserve release to stabilize markets, with member countries set to vote Wednesday.