Overview
- Multiple late‑May surveys show Fratelli d'Italia rising to about 27.6–27.7 percent, consolidating Giorgia Meloni's lead within the centre‑right.
- Roberto Vannacci's Futuro Nazionale has climbed to roughly 4.4–4.8 percent, putting it close to the Lega and raising its leverage in coalition talks.
- Ipsos Doxa simulations of the Stabilicum rule indicate that including Futuro Nazionale in the centre‑right would flip the parliamentary majority and hand the winning coalition a large seat bonus.
- The Lega has fallen to multi‑year lows near 5.7–5.9 percent while the PD has slipped to about 20.1 percent, and one Youtrend poll finds roughly 57 percent negative evaluations of the Meloni government.
- Pollsters warn the seat projections assume full vote transfer to coalitions, Forza Italia publicly resists an alliance with Vannacci, and these factors make short‑term outcomes and 2027 arithmetic highly uncertain.