Overview
- FAO’s chief economist said reopening the Strait of Hormuz would help yet the damage to fertilizer supply chains is already done.
- Shipping data firm Kpler reports about 1.9 million tonnes of fertilizer trapped on 41 vessels, and the FAO says roughly one third of urea trade is blocked.
- Spot prices have jumped, with Middle East urea up about 70% in weeks, and the FAO expects average fertilizer prices to run 15–20% higher in the first half of 2026.
- Many pre-war supply contracts are suspended under force majeure, pushing buyers off fixed deals and onto higher-priced spot markets.
- Missed planting windows in countries reliant on Gulf supplies signal lower yields this season, and India has raised fertilizer subsidies by 11% to cushion farmers.