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15h ago

Falcon 9 Upper Stage Predicted to Strike Moon Near Einstein Crater on August 5

The high-confidence forecast spotlights gaps in tracking of distant space hardware.

This is the spot where a Falcon 9 upper stage rocket body will collide with the moon on August 5, 2026. The spent rocket will hit the moon at 5,400 mph (8,700 kph). Image via Bill Gray. Used with permission.
© SpaceX
A Falcon 9 rocket on the launch pad, with the Moon in the background.
SpaceX Rocket Debris Is Set To Collide With The Moon On August 5, 2026, Hitting The Rim Of Einstein’s Crater

Overview

  • Bill Gray’s Project Pluto analysis published Wednesday projects an August 5 impact at 06:44 UTC near the Moon’s Einstein crater at about 2.43 kilometers per second.
  • The object is the Falcon 9 second stage from the January 15, 2025 launch of Firefly’s Blue Ghost and ispace’s Hakuto-R Resilience, cataloged as 2025-010D after more than 1,000 telescope sightings fixed its path.
  • Small forces from sunlight can nudge the tumbling stage over months, so the exact impact point will be refined even as confidence in an August 5 hit remains high.
  • The event poses no danger to people or active missions and will likely be too faint to see from Earth, though NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter may image the new crater afterward.
  • Ground-based telescopes, not U.S. Space Force radar geared for low orbits, enabled this forecast, highlighting growing disposal and monitoring needs as lunar activity expands after a similar rocket strike in 2022 created a double crater.