Export Sales Steady Grains as Oil Slump and Argentine Crop Revisions Fuel Volatility
Stronger‑than‑expected USDA export sales have propped up corn and soybeans while crude oil weakness and bigger Argentine crop estimates keep prices mixed.
Overview
- Traders pointed to steep crude oil losses and media reports of progressing U.S.‑Iran negotiations as a midweek driver of lower grain prices on Wednesday, adding downside pressure to corn and soybeans.
- USDA export sales released Thursday showed an unexpected 2.125 million tonnes of old‑crop U.S. corn and 351,423 tonnes of 2025/26 soybeans, providing near‑term demand support and prompting buyers in South Korea, Japan and Mexico.
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised Argentina’s 2025/26 estimates by 3 million tonnes for corn and 1.5 million tonnes for soybeans, increasing global supply expectations and offsetting some of the export‑driven gains.
- U.S. energy and biofuel data added mixed signals: EIA reported higher ethanol output that supports corn demand, while USDA APHIS recorded 2,014 New World Screwworm cases in Mexico, creating livestock and packing risks that could affect feed demand.
- Markets entered the long weekend cautious and mixed on Friday with corn steadier and soybeans modestly firmer at times, and near‑term direction now hinging on confirmed shipments, further export notices and short‑term energy or geopolitical developments.