Overview
- Estonian security expert Erkki Koort outlined a Russia-style operation against Rügen in a German reservists’ podcast, pushing the scenario into broader public debate.
- The model describes hybrid tactics that avoid open war, with unmarked operatives mixed into tourist crowds, cyberattacks on power and communications, and small sabotage teams to cause confusion.
- Rügen is seen as vulnerable because only two fixed routes connect it to the mainland — the Rügendamm and the Rügenbrücke — which could let a small force isolate the island and seize key sites.
- Analysts frame the exercise as a stress test rather than a forecast, warning that unclear attribution in a covert strike could slow any German or NATO decision to respond.
- Experts argue disruption on German soil could hinder alliance reinforcements moving east, and they point to Sweden’s remilitarization of Gotland as a contrasting approach to Baltic island defense.