Overview
- FIFA’s move to a 48-team format increases the number of third-place qualifiers to the knockout stage, which reduces the chance a single poor group result eliminates a heavyweight and raises the probability of unexpected deep runs.
- Pre-tournament analyses from major outlets identify Norway, Colombia, Morocco and Japan as realistic dark horses because each combines coherent systems with recent qualifying form or high-impact players.
- Norway’s case rests on Erling Haaland’s prolific scoring and an undefeated qualifying run, while Colombia is built around Luis Díaz and James Rodríguez supplying a deep attacking pool.
- Morocco enters with a proven defensive identity despite a March coaching change and Japan is praised for a disciplined pressing system that produced major upsets in 2022.
- Analysts flag vulnerabilities that could still produce early exits, including co-hosts the United States and Mexico facing defensive and injury concerns, Croatia’s aging core and recent roster disruptions such as Luka Modrić’s surgery and Switzerland’s goalkeeper turnover.