Overview
- Eurostat’s first estimate showed eurozone headline inflation slowed to 2.8 percent year‑on‑year in June, reflecting a sharp easing in energy costs.
- Brent oil plunged from about $120 a barrel at the height of the Iran conflict to roughly $73 after tensions cooled, removing a major driver of the May price spike.
- The ECB delivered a rate increase in June, its first in nearly three years, and markets and economists now expect policymakers to likely hold rates in July while keeping further hikes possible.
- Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned at the Sintra forum that inflation remains too high, that risks of wage‑price feedbacks grow the longer inflation stays above 2 percent, and that the end of Germany’s temporary fuel tax cut will push domestic inflation up initially.
- Officials at Sintra, including visiting US Fed chair Kevin Warsh, stressed that faster and larger geopolitical shocks can quickly sway global prices and that central banks must stay data‑dependent to avoid premature policy shifts.