Overview
- Eurostat’s confirmation on Wednesday of a 3.07% deficit for 2025, rounded to 3.1%, leaves Italy in the EU’s excessive‑deficit procedure, with a fuller European Commission review expected in early June.
- Because the ratio stayed above 3%, Italy cannot activate the new defence “safeguard” that would exclude military investments from the EU spending cap, a relief estimated at about €12 billion over three years.
- The cabinet, following Wednesday’s data, approved a revised public‑finance plan that cuts growth to 0.6% for 2026, lifts the 2026 deficit to 2.9%, and projects debt around 138.6% of GDP, partly due to lingering Superbonus costs.
- Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said Italy may ask Parliament for a budget deviation if Brussels resists flexibility, and he named energy‑price relief for households and hauliers as the first call on any extra borrowing.
- In a note published Thursday, Giorgetti wrote that dropping the deficit below 3% this year would pave the way to exit the EU procedure in 2027 if that path is confirmed.