Overview
- EU imports of Russian gas fell about 75% from 2021 to 2025 as US LNG rose from roughly 21 to 81 billion cubic meters, accounting for about 57% of the bloc’s LNG in 2025.
- IEEFA projects that US LNG could supply 75–80% of EU LNG by 2030—around 40% of total gas—if planned contracts proceed and demand reductions stall.
- Germany’s exposure is pronounced, with the economy ministry citing 92% of its 2025 LNG imports from the US and utilities adding multi‑year deals, including RWE’s new 20‑year contract with Glenfarne.
- Reported trade assurances include an EU pledge to purchase $750 billion of US energy through 2028, alongside additional long‑term supply announcements at Gastech in Milan and at P‑TEC in Athens.
- Supplier leverage has already been signaled by a joint US‑Qatar letter in October 2025 threatening LNG delivery suspensions over EU sustainability rules, while EU gas reserves are described as very low this winter by analysts warning of price risks.