Overview
- The TTF benchmark climbed roughly 20% on the week to around €35/MWh, the sharpest weekly rise since October 2023 and the highest level since August.
- European gas inventories hover near 52% versus a seasonal norm around 67%, with forecasts for late‑January icy conditions risking prolonged heavy withdrawals.
- Tensions involving Iran and threatened 25% U.S. tariffs on its trading partners have heightened supply anxiety, including concerns over Turkey’s reliance on Iranian gas and potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
- Stronger LNG demand from China is tightening competition for cargoes, raising the risk that fewer shipments head to Europe.
- Analysts describe a near‑term “perfect storm,” though some expect prices to ease later in 2026 if LNG supply grows, while Germany’s storage has fallen to about 44% even as regulators say supply remains stable.