Overview
- The Nature Health paper published in May 2026 analyzed 161 million deaths across 32 European countries from 2000 to 2019 using the EARLY-ADAPT database.
- Researchers found economic prosperity lowers cold-related deaths yet raises heat risk, which they link to dense cities that trap warmth through asphalt and limited tree cover.
- Regions with higher inequality and deprivation show greater vulnerability to both heat and cold, including where people struggle to keep homes warm or lack quality housing and care.
- Scenario modeling estimates more than 300,000 extra deaths in conditions where households cannot heat homes, about 177,000 tied to income inequality, and roughly 157,000 to severe deprivation.
- Europe recorded over 180,000 heat-associated deaths in 2022–2024, which the authors say should drive equity-focused adaptation and similar studies outside Europe to guide policy.