Overview
- Late June forecasts from independent firms and network operators now put EU underground gas storage at roughly 75–78% by the end of the April–October injection season.
- The shortfall follows a deep winter draw that left storage near 28–31% in April and slower-than-expected injections during spring and early summer.
- Analysts link constrained injections to disruptions in LNG flows caused by tensions affecting the Strait of Hormuz, reduced output from Qatar and the UAE, and the phased loss of Russian supplies.
- Meeting the traditional 90% target would require roughly 57 billion cubic meters of extra injections, a gap that market participants say makes higher TTF benchmark prices and winter price spikes more likely.
- Policymakers are debating lowering the formal storage target toward 80% to ease competition for scarce cargoes but that choice would leave a smaller buffer for households and businesses if cold weather or supply shocks arrive.