Overview
- EU policymakers plan a single auction-based CO2 price for buildings and transport from 2028, and the analysis models a rate of about €60 per tonne.
- The Bertelsmann Stiftung study covering roughly 103 million households projects a limited average rise in countries with existing pricing, about €17 per year in Germany versus 2025.
- Households in several Eastern member states that heat with gas, oil or coal and lack current pricing could face annual increases of roughly €100 to €400.
- Where current national CO2 prices already exceed €60, including Portugal, Ireland, Denmark and Sweden, heating costs could decline under harmonization.
- The authors call for a large Climate‑Social Fund and tightly targeted use of CO2 revenues for short‑term relief, while urging additional national programs for heat pumps, insulation and district heating as many states have missed climate‑social plan deadlines.