Overview
- Analysts using Kpler data found that 136 of 140 cargoes from Russia’s Yamal LNG terminal were discharged at EU ports in the first half of 2026, totaling about 9.9 million metric tons.
- Urgewald’s calculation estimates the EU paid roughly €5.96 billion for those cargoes, but that figure uses benchmark prices and not confidential contract rates.
- The European Commission and analysts describe the surge as frontloading, with buyers using exemptions and contract timing after short-term rules took effect in April 2026 to accelerate deliveries.
- Yamal’s exports rely on a small fleet of Arc7 ice‑class tankers, fast turnarounds at European ports, and European ship services, so continued flows depend on port access and vessel maintenance.
- The concentrated imports have policy and security consequences because they kept large revenues flowing to Moscow even as the EU has set a phased phase‑out that includes an LNG import ban from January 1, 2027.