Overview
- EU Space Surveillance and Tracking reports the ZQ-3 R/B second stage is on course for an uncontrolled atmospheric re-entry on January 30, with the latest estimate near 12:20 CET and uncertainty now under an hour.
- The updated trajectory currently excludes Italy and focuses the potential ground track on a small portion of northern and eastern Europe, though most possible paths remain over ocean or uninhabited regions.
- Earlier projections covered a broad latitude band between 57°N and 57°S, meaning the theoretical risk footprint spans large oceanic areas and parts of the United States and central-southern Europe.
- The object is the roughly 12‑meter, ~11‑tonne second stage from LandSpace’s Zhuque‑3 inaugural flight on December 3, which may still carry a dummy payload attached.
- Experts caution that if the stage uses steel-rich structures, some fragments could survive re-entry, renewing criticism of Chinese launch practices that do not always plan controlled de-orbits.