Overview
- The European Commission has proposed a phased cap, reported Friday, June 12, 2026, that would immediately limit imports to the 2023–2025 average, cut them to 75 percent after one year and to 50 percent after two years.
- Germany is the EU's largest buyer of Russian Alaska pollock and imported about 93,500 tonnes last year, worth roughly €228 million, leaving its processors highly exposed to any supply cuts.
- The Thünen-Institut warns the planned limits could cut supply, push up retail prices for frozen fish products and put jobs at risk in the German fish-processing sector.
- Analysts say substitution is limited because U.S. catches are tied up in long contracts and farmed alternatives like pangasius do not match the form, price or volume, while excluded Russian exports are likely to be redirected to other global markets.
- Diplomats expect the 21st sanctions package to be decided by July and officials are also considering a separate ban on Russian cod from 2028, while major German producers have so far not publicly commented and industry groups are still assessing the proposal.