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EU Lung Cancer Death Rates Set to Fall in 2026, Except Among Oldest Women

Researchers credit changing smoking patterns, urging tougher tobacco control.

Overview

  • Age‑standardized projections for 2026 put EU lung cancer mortality at 23 deaths per 100,000 for men and 12 for women.
  • Germany is forecast at 20 per 100,000 for men and 14 for women, about a 25% drop for men and roughly 7% for women versus 2015–2019.
  • The sharpest improvement is in adults aged 25–44, with mortality down by more than 40% from the 2015–2019 baseline on low absolute numbers.
  • Women aged 75 and older are a key exception, with mortality projected at 151 per 100,000, a 19% rise attributed to historical smoking patterns.
  • Across all cancers, EU mortality is projected to continue declining (114 per 100,000 men; 75 women), while authors call for higher tobacco taxes, ad bans and smoke‑free spaces, and U.S. data show improving survival but warn about costs and access.