Overview
- European storage stands at about 48% capacity as of late June, leaving refills far behind the usual seasonal pace.
- By the end of June Europe had injected roughly 22.5 billion cubic meters, about one-third of the roughly 68 bcm needed to hit a 90% target.
- Independent forecasts now put end-of-season fills around 75–78%, with a central estimate near 76%, well below the long-standing 90% buffer.
- The shortfall is driven by LNG disruptions tied to the US–Iran conflict and slowed shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, lower output from Qatar and the UAE, and the phased removal of Russian supplies.
- Lower storage raises the risk of higher winter wholesale prices and greater reliance on market imports, so the European Commission and member states are discussing formally lowering nonbinding targets to about 75–80% to ease market strain.