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EU Carbon Market Expansion Will Raise Household Fuel and Heating Bills, PBL Warns

Uncertain permit prices could push vulnerable households into energy poverty.

Overview

  • The Netherlands’ environmental planning agency says the EU’s new ETS2 starting in 2028 will raise what households pay for gas, petrol, and diesel.
  • It estimates a typical increase of several tens of euros per month, with big differences by home type and driving habits.
  • Fuel and gas traders will buy the CO2 permits and pass the cost into prices, while the future permit price remains unknown.
  • Owners with a gas boiler and a petrol car face the largest increases, but homes with heat pumps and drivers of electric cars avoid most new charges.
  • The agency warns of energy or transport poverty in high‑price cases and notes governments can fund relief from EU revenues, with no new permits issued after 2043 as the cap tightens.